Earnings Predictor

ROST has a strong historical pattern behind it: over the last 8 quarters, it moved higher after earnings 87.5% of the time, and the average move was positive at about 2.4%. The stock also has a perfect beat rate in the sample, which fits with the generally positive news backdrop describing value-driven demand, store expansion, and stronger execution ahead of earnings. Near-term trading is mixed, with the stock down 3.9% over 5 days but still up about 5.1% over 20 days, suggesting some short-term pullback within a broader constructive setup. This is a historical-pattern and news-based signal, not a guarantee.

Over the last 8 quarters, DE has moved higher after earnings 62.5% of the time, with a small positive average move of about 2.5%, which supports a mildly bullish historical pattern. The setup is mixed, though, because the average absolute move is fairly large at about 6.8%, so the stock has still tended to swing meaningfully around the report. Recent price action is also split, with 5-day momentum down about 1.9% but 20-day momentum up about 1.9%, while the news backdrop is mostly routine and only mildly supportive, with a Moderate Buy tone offset by warnings about weak North American demand and margin pressure. This is a historical-pattern and news-based signal, not a guarantee.

WMT shows a mildly positive setup, with the signal pointing up at 55% confidence. Over the last 8 quarters, the stock has been up after earnings 50% of the time, but the average move has been slightly negative at -1.08%, while the typical absolute move has been about 5.28%, which suggests the stock often moves meaningfully even if the direction is mixed. The recent trend is supportive, with 5-day momentum at 3.06% and 20-day momentum at 0.90%, and the company has beaten estimates in 87.5% of the quarters analyzed. There is no notable recent news catalyst, so this is a historical-pattern and news-based signal, not a guarantee.

TJX has a strong historical setup for an upside move: over the last 8 quarters, it finished higher 87.5% of the time, and the average move was positive at about 1.36%. It also has a perfect beat rate in the sample, which fits with the idea that the market has often rewarded its earnings reports. The recent news backdrop is mildly supportive as well, with coverage ahead of Q2 pointing to expected sales and earnings growth, strong traffic, fresh assortments, and merchandise-margin gains. That said, the stock has been weak into the event, with 5-day momentum at -5.7% and 20-day momentum at -1.5%, so the signal is positive but not especially strong. This is a historical-pattern and news-based signal, not a guarantee.

ADI has a modestly positive setup because its 8-quarter history shows a 50% rate of post-earnings moves higher, and the average move after earnings has been fairly large at about 5.5% in either direction, so the stock has tended to react meaningfully. The historical beat rate is 100%, which supports the idea that earnings surprises have often been favorable, even though the average signed move is only slightly positive. On the news side, recent coverage is mildly supportive, pointing to broad-based demand, AI-driven communications growth, and expectations for a possible earnings beat, which helps explain the upward tilt despite the mixed short-term momentum. This is a historical-pattern and news-based signal, not a guarantee.

LOW has a mixed but slightly positive setup: over the last 8 similar quarters, the stock finished higher only 25% of the time, and the average move was slightly negative at -0.9%, while the typical absolute move was about 2.2%. That said, the beat rate is 1, which suggests the company has been consistently meeting expectations in the historical sample, and the recent 20-day momentum is positive at 4.7% even though the 5-day momentum is down 2.2%. The news backdrop is only mildly supportive, with mostly routine earnings-preview and dividend commentary plus a small positive catalyst from Lowe's $20 million community grants announcement and no major guidance change, which helps explain the modest upward tilt in the signal. This is a historical-pattern and news-based signal, not a guarantee.

NDSN has shown a modest tendency to rise after similar setups, with 62.5% of the last 8 quarters finishing up and a 75% beat rate pointing to a generally supportive earnings pattern. The average move has been small at about 1.08%, but the average absolute move of 3.81% suggests the stock can still react meaningfully around these events. Recent price action is mixed, with a slight 5-day dip but a stronger 20-day gain, which fits a setup where short-term noise is offset by broader momentum. The news backdrop is mostly routine, though the mention of solid Q2 results and AI semiconductor strength adds a mild positive catalyst, making this a historical-pattern and news-based signal, not a guarantee.

TGT’s signal points modestly up, but the historical setup is mixed: over the last 8 quarters, the stock has only closed higher 25% of the time after earnings, and the average move has been slightly negative at -3.5%. Even so, the stock has tended to move meaningfully around earnings, with an average absolute move of 7.2%, and the beat rate has been 75%, which helps explain why the model leans positive despite the weak post-earnings hit rate. The recent price trend is also supportive, with 5-day momentum at 3.2% and 20-day momentum at 10.7%, while the news tone is mostly neutral-to-positive and suggests Target may be positioned for an earnings beat, though there is no concrete company-specific catalyst. This is a historical-pattern and news-based signal, not a guarantee.

Over the last 8 quarters, JKHY has beaten expectations 87.5% of the time, which is a supportive historical sign, but the average post-event move was slightly negative at -0.5%, so the edge has been modest rather than strong. The stock’s recent tape is mixed too: it was down about 1.7% over 5 days but up about 1.1% over 20 days, suggesting some short-term pressure with a bit of longer-term stabilization. The news backdrop is mildly positive, with customer wins and ecosystem expansion helping sentiment, even though slower digital revenue and higher costs are tempering enthusiasm ahead of earnings. Taken together, this points to a slight upward tilt, but it is a historical-pattern and news-based signal, not a guarantee.

HD’s signal points modestly higher because the historical setup has leaned positive: over the last 8 quarters, the stock moved up after earnings 62.5% of the time, and the beat rate was also 62.5%. That said, the average move was small at about 0.2%, while the typical absolute move was about 2.5%, so the main takeaway is that the stock has tended to react, but not always in a large or one-way fashion. The news backdrop is only mildly supportive, with routine pre-earnings optimism around sales and EPS, partly offset by housing and margin pressure plus the CEO’s medical leave, which helps explain why the confidence is only moderate. This is a historical-pattern and news-based signal, not a guarantee.